Vail Resorts has been treading water for the past six months, recording a small loss of 4.3% while holding steady at $153.41. The stock also fell short of the S&P 500’s 5.2% gain during that period.

Is there a buying opportunity in Vail Resorts, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? See what our analysts have to say in our full research report, it’s free.

Why Is Vail Resorts Not Exciting?

We don't have much confidence in Vail Resorts. Here are three reasons why MTN doesn't excite us and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Long-Term Revenue Growth Disappoints

Reviewing a company’s long-term sales performance reveals insights into its quality. Even a bad business can shine for one or two quarters, but a top-tier one grows for years. Over the last five years, Vail Resorts grew its sales at a sluggish 6.8% compounded annual growth rate. This fell short of our benchmark for the consumer discretionary sector.

2. Decline in Skier Visits Points to Weak Demand

Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (for companies like Vail Resorts, our preferred volume metric is skier visits). While both are important, the latter is the most critical to analyze because prices have a ceiling.

Vail Resorts’s skier visits came in at 8.61 million in the latest quarter, and over the last two years, averaged 12.2% year-on-year declines. This performance was underwhelming and implies there may be increasing competition or market saturation. It also suggests Vail Resorts might have to lower prices or invest in product improvements to grow, factors that can hinder near-term profitability.

3. Projected Revenue Growth Is Slim

Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.

Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Vail Resorts’s revenue to rise by 3.4%. Although this projection implies its newer products and services will fuel better top-line performance, it is still below average for the sector.

Final Judgment

Vail Resorts isn’t a terrible business, but it doesn’t pass our quality test. With its shares lagging the market recently, the stock trades at 18.8× forward P/E (or $153.41 per share). While this valuation is reasonable, we don’t really see a big opportunity at the moment. We're fairly confident there are better investments elsewhere. We’d recommend looking at one of our all-time favorite software stocks.

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