UKG Workforce Activity Report: Shift Data Predicts Lackluster Jobs Growth in May

National Overview:

The UKG Workforce Activity Report for May 2022 shows the total number of shifts worked¹ by people at U.S. businesses declined 1.0% relative to April 2022². Smaller companies with fewer than 1,000 employees experienced twice as much loss (-1.4%) as larger companies (-0.7%), while shift work in retail (-2.5%) and healthcare (-2.2%) fell the farthest. As workplaces continue to experience stress from challenging economic conditions, consistent small workforce activity declines in 10 of the last 11 weeks indicate a soft landing for the economy may be in progress, with modest employment gains expected in May.

UKG will discuss the findings in a live market briefing on Tuesday, May 31, at 12 p.m. ET (U.S. and Canada). Register to attend.

Commentary:

Dave Gilbertson, vice president, UKG

“We have confidence that the May jobs report will again show gains, though these should be lackluster compared with April. This is likely a sign we are in the early stages of a soft landing in the labor market, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s goal of moderating job availability as a curb to inflation. Zooming in on shift levels by industry, retail workforce activity has declined three months in a row following sustained growth in 2021, as retailers adjust their staffing levels in response to a more complex operating environment. In healthcare, we saw the segment continue its long-term trend of underperforming, dropping 2.2% from April to May.”

Industry Analysis:

Workforce activity in the retail, hospitality, and food service segment started to decline in April and the trend accelerated through May, just as hiring begins to come under pressure ahead of the summer season:

• Services and distribution: -1.0%
• Manufacturing: -1.7%
• Public sector and nonprofit: -1.8%
• Healthcare: -2.2%
• Retail, hospitality, and food service: -2.5%

Region Snapshot:

Western states recorded the greatest drop in May, though a comparison year over year shows the Southeast still lags all other regions in terms of recovery:

• Northeast³: -0.5%
• Midwest⁴: -0.7%
• Southeast⁵: -0.8%
• West⁶: -3.6%

Business Size:

Month over month, businesses with fewer than 1,000 people lost twice as many shifts in May on aggregate, compared with larger organizations:

• Fewer than 100 employees: -1.2%
• 101-500: -1.0%
• 501-1,000: -2.6%
• 1,001-2,500: 0.0%
• 2,501-5,000: -0.7%
• More than 5,000: -2.3%

Timeliness:

The UKG Workforce Activity Report is a high-frequency index analyzing shift work trends for 4 million people at 35,000 U.S. businesses to understand job creation and economic momentum.