Annualized Price Appreciation Slows for Second Straight Month, Falling by Almost a Full Percentage Point, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report

—Mid-market price pressures weaken significantly as move-up demand from rate-locked owners of starter homes remains stalled, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming—

First American Data & Analytics, a leading national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), today released its February 2024 Home Price Index (HPI) report. The report tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time at the national, state and metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found here.

February House Price Index Highlights

The First American Data & Analytics’ non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) HPI showed that nationally in February¹ 2024:

• House prices increased 0.7 percent between January 2024 and February 2024.
• House prices increased 6.3 percent between February 2023 and February 2024, the slowest annual pace since October 2023.
• House prices are now 50 percent higher compared to pre-pandemic levels (February 2020).
• House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for December 2023 to January 2024 was revised up 0.1 percentage points, from 0.3 percent to 0.4 percent.

“After reaching a recent peak in December, annualized home price appreciation slowed for the second consecutive month, bringing more clarity to the trajectory for price appreciation in 2024. In February, our preliminary estimate of annualized appreciation dropped by almost a full percentage point,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “The last time there was a slow-down of this magnitude was in early 2023 when the Fed was aggressively raising interest rates. While the supply of homes for sale is slowly increasing as the spring selling season approaches, persistent inflation is keeping mortgage rates elevated. The relative increase in homes for sale is a welcome sign for prospective home buyers and seems to be helping to normalize house price appreciation, an added benefit heading into the spring home-buying season.”

February 2024 House Price State² Highlights

• The five most populous states experienced the following year-over-year growth in the HPI: Pennsylvania (+7.9 percent), New York (+5.3 percent), Florida (+4.9 percent), Texas (+4.8 percent), and California (+4.7 percent).
• There were no states with a year-over-year decrease in the HPI.
• Full 50-state HPI data is available here.

February 2024 House Price Local Market Highlights

• Among the 30 Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) tracked by First American Data & Analytics, the five markets with the greatest year-over-year increase in the HPI are: Miami (+10.5 percent), Cambridge, Mass. (+10.2 percent), Anaheim, Calif. (+9.7 percent), San Diego (+8.9 percent), and Pittsburgh (+7.9 percent).
• Among the 30 Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) tracked by First American Data & Analytics, the only market with a year-over-year decrease in the HPI was: Nassau County, N.Y. (-0.5 percent).
• Data for the largest 30 CBSAs by population is available here.

February 2024 Local Market Price Tier Highlights

The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution; mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution.

“Starter home price appreciation remains strong as first-time home buyers hunt for homes to buy from current starter homeowners, who are the most sensitive to the rate lock-in effect and unable or unwilling to list their home for sale to fuel a move-up purchase. The lack of mid-tier move-up demand is significantly weakening price appreciation in the mid-market," said Fleming. “Mid-tier prices for the markets we track are mostly flat compared with a year ago and down by more than 3 percent in Warren, Mich. and Nassau County, N.Y."

Visit the First American Economic Center for more research on housing market dynamics.

Next Release

The next release of the First American Data & Analytics House Price Index will take place the week of April 15, 2024.

First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology

The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices updated monthly beginning in 1980 through the month of the current report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the report (i.e. the preliminary result of July transactions is reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.

The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures prices changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure states, the HPI utilizes a combination of public sales records, MLS sold and active listings, and appraisal data to estimate house prices. This comprehensive approach is particularly effective in areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices, such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real Estate-Owned transactions are not included.

Disclaimer

Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2024 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.

About First American Data & Analytics

First American Data & Analytics, a division of First American Financial Corporation, is a national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions. First American maintains and curates the industry’s largest property and ownership dataset that includes more than 8 billion document images. Its major platforms and products include: DataTree^®, FraudGuard^®, RegsData^®, First American TaxSource™ and ACI^®. Find out more about how First American Data & Analytics powers the real estate, mortgage and title settlement services industries with advanced decisioning solutions at www.FirstAmDNA.com.

About First American

First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and stability built over more than 130 years, innovative proprietary technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the digital transformation of its industry. First American also provides data products to the title industry and other third parties; valuation products and services; mortgage subservicing; home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management services; and other related products and services. With total revenue of $6.0 billion in 2023, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2023, First American was named one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For by Great Place to Work^® and Fortune Magazine for the eighth consecutive year and was named one of the 100 Best Workplaces for Innovators by Fast Company. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com.

¹ The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.

² The HPI for non-disclosure states and markets that fall within non-disclosures states are not included in this month’s HPI report.

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