Today, Carbon Direct released its 2026 flagship report analyzing the voluntary carbon market (VCM) with a focus on carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The report finds that the market stands at a critical inflection point: while the infrastructure, science, and solutions are ready to scale, buyer hesitation threatens to strand essential carbon removal projects just as policy catalysts and new standards are poised to unlock greater demand.

Most organizations holding 2030 climate goals have yet to engage in CDR procurement—indicating great potential for acceleration if companies utilize CDR to help turn their climate goals into near-term action, as the science recommends. Several pivotal developments on the immediate horizon could trigger market activation: updated industry standards that incorporate CDR into net-zero pathways and compliance mechanisms that create mandatory demand.

Yet the report warns that without demand today, CDR supply will be at risk tomorrow. Demand projections informed by organizational targets suggest a potential CDR market of up to two gigatonnes by 2050, yet actual current buyer activity points to a far lower trajectory. The CDR market remains only at 8 million tonnes, 0.4% of that two gigatonne target. CDR continues to be a small segment of the VCM–only 6% of the overall market, despite the urgent need for rapid carbon removal scale-up alongside deep emissions reductions—both essential to limiting overshoot of 1.5°C, a risk that makes scaling CDR solutions both urgent and strategic.

"With 2030 only four years away, most organizations with climate targets have yet to actually engage in carbon dioxide removal procurement—representing both an immediate need and an enormous opportunity to catalyze the market at the scale required," said Sanna O’Connor-Morberg, Director of Strategy & Markets for Carbon Direct. "The science, solutions, and supply of CDR are ready now and are essential alongside aggressive decarbonization. Decisive action from buyers is the missing link to scale the market at the speed required. The escalating risk of climate overshoot leaves no room for delay.”

"2026 represents a leadership opportunity for companies who have the power to scale the markets they need now and into the future," said Bodie Cabiyo, PhD, Director of Interdisciplinary Science for Carbon Direct. “High-quality CDR supply is critically scarce—fewer than 10% of CDR projects we review meet our rigorous bar—yet we are in a moment where the potential for high-quality CDR solutions has never been greater. Early buyers aren't just meeting their climate obligations, they're strategically positioning themselves with better pricing, supply security, and competitive advantage, all while enabling critical climate solutions to scale."

Carbon Direct's 2026 State of the Voluntary Carbon Market report analyzes trends across the broader market and hones in on trends in both nature-based and high-durability CDR pathways, revealing a market showing both progress and fragility. Notable metrics include:

• With CDR comprising only 6% of voluntary carbon credits in the VCM and fewer than 10% of those Carbon Direct reviewed meeting high-quality thresholds, scientifically credible removal credits are scarce.
• 95% of CDR credits issued in the spot market were from nature-based solutions and only 5% were from high-durability approaches.
• CDR demand is highly forward looking: there’s more than 90Mt of contracted or committed CDR demand for future delivery.
  • Investment in nature-based CDR rose but remains insufficient to support 2030 corporate targets if new buyers enter the market.
  • High-durability CDR pathways face steeper challenges, with only a small cohort of projects securing committed demand needed for deployment.
  • Without stronger demand signals, a significant share of planned high-durability CDR projects risk becoming insolvent.

Heading into 2026, the VCM has established essential foundations for growth: robust infrastructure, available capital, and expanding technological options. With policy catalysts converging and climate commitments maturing, the critical gap is not in market readiness, but in translating corporate climate commitments into the purchasing activity that will define what's available—and at what cost—for everyone in the years ahead.

For more information, read the full report: 2026 State of the Voluntary Carbon Dioxide Removal Market

About Carbon Direct

Carbon Direct is a trusted energy and climate solutions firm that combines world-class scientific expertise, technical rigor, and market insights to help clients achieve their business goals. Our 70+ scientists work closely with our finance, policy, and market experts to design, diligence, and deliver decarbonization solutions across industries. From JPMorganChase to Microsoft, Carbon Direct helps leading companies with carbon dioxide removal, carbon measurement, firm clean power opportunities, and low-carbon energy solutions. To learn more, visit www.carbon-direct.com.

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"With 2030 only four years away, most organizations with climate targets have yet to actually engage in carbon dioxide removal procurement—representing both an immediate need and an enormous opportunity to catalyze the market at the scale required."