Wireless chipmaker Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations in calendar Q3 2026 (fiscal Q4 2026), but sales fell by 7.3% year on year to $10.44 billion. Guidance for next quarter’s revenue was optimistic at $10.8 billion at the midpoint, 2.6% above analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $2.17 per share was in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s take

Qualcomm’s recent quarter was met with a negative market reaction, as investors responded to declining year-over-year sales and a steep contraction in operating margins. Management identified ongoing headwinds in its core handset business, especially from memory pricing pressures and the loss of a major customer. CEO Cristiano Amon acknowledged, “The June quarter marked the low point for our China Android business, and we have seen sequential growth this quarter.” Licensing renewals with key partners like Apple and Huawei were cited as sources of stability amid ongoing industry volatility.

Looking forward, Qualcomm’s guidance is built on expectations for strong growth in its non-handset segments, particularly automotive and data center. The company expects its custom silicon and AI accelerator products to drive significant revenue increases, while also forecasting that non-handset sales will account for over half of segment revenues in the coming year. CFO Akash Palkhiwala cautioned that ramping data center products will be “accretive to our operating margins, but dilutive to gross margins,” reflecting both opportunity and trade-offs as the business diversifies.

Key insights from management’s remarks

Management attributed the quarter’s results to ongoing softness in handset demand, stabilization in licensing revenues, and the ramp-up of new business lines, particularly in automotive and data center.

• Handset market headwinds: Qualcomm reported persistent weakness in global smartphone demand, with memory pricing and inventory drawdowns particularly affecting its Android business. Management described the June quarter as a low point but noted some sequential improvement in China.
• Licensing agreements renewed: The company secured multi-year licensing renewals with Apple, Huawei, and Transsion, which management says locks in a stable revenue stream through to the end of the decade. CEO Amon pointed to these renewals as providing “a durable, highly profitable foundation.”
• Automotive segment strength: Automotive revenues grew sharply, nearly doubling year over year, as the fifth-generation Snapdragon Digital Chassis began commercial shipments. Management emphasized that higher compute content per vehicle and a strong design win pipeline are driving growth.
• Data center ramp underway: Qualcomm’s data center business began generating revenue, with custom silicon shipments to major hyperscaler customers and growing interest in its AI accelerators and connectivity solutions. Management highlighted agreements with AWS and Meta and expects continued rapid expansion.
• Pricing actions and margin impact: The company is implementing price increases to offset higher semiconductor input costs, but these are expected to benefit gross margins only in the latter half of next year. Meanwhile, the initial ramp of data center products is expected to weigh on gross margins even as operating margins benefit.

Drivers of future performance

Qualcomm’s forward guidance reflects expectations for ongoing growth in automotive and data center, alongside persistent margin pressures as the business mix evolves.

• Non-handset diversification: Management expects non-handset revenues—from automotive, IoT, and data center—to grow over 60% year over year, with these segments projected to make up more than half of relevant revenues as handset sales remain flat or decline.
• Data center growth and margin trade-off: The ramp of custom silicon and AI accelerator products for hyperscale customers is set to drive topline growth, but management notes these products will dilute gross margins even as they contribute positively to operating margins.
• Handset pricing and market risks: While price increases are planned to counter rising costs, management remains cautious on the global handset market, forecasting flat to slightly down unit volumes and ongoing pressure from memory pricing and customer inventory adjustments.

Catalysts in upcoming quarters

As we look ahead, the StockStory team will closely monitor (1) the pace of revenue diversification, especially whether non-handset segments can offset ongoing handset declines, (2) the gross margin trajectory as price increases take effect and data center revenue ramps, and (3) further progress in automotive and infrastructure partnerships, such as the rollout of the Starlink 5G network. Execution on these priorities will be key to Qualcomm’s outlook.

Qualcomm currently trades at $160.25, down from $176.16 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).

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