
Strategic Education currently trades at $78.82 per share and has shown little upside over the past six months, posting a small loss of 2.5%. The stock also fell short of the S&P 500’s 6.8% gain during that period.
Is now the time to buy Strategic Education, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? See what our analysts have to say in our full research report, it’s free.
Why Do We Think Strategic Education Will Underperform?
We don’t have much confidence in Strategic Education. Here are three reasons you should be careful with STRA, plus one stock we’d rather own.
1. Inability to Grow Domestic Students Points to Weak Demand
Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (for companies like Strategic Education, our preferred volume metric is domestic students). While both are important, the latter is the most critical to analyze because prices have a ceiling.
Over the last two years, Strategic Education failed to grow its domestic students, which came in at 87,165 in the latest quarter. This performance was underwhelming and implies there may be increasing competition or market saturation. It also suggests Strategic Education might have to lower prices or invest in product improvements to accelerate growth, factors that can hinder near-term profitability. 
2. EPS Growth Has Stalled
Analyzing the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) shows whether a company’s incremental sales were profitable — for example, revenue could be inflated through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.
Strategic Education’s flat EPS over the last five years was below its 3.6% annualized revenue growth. This tells us the company became less profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded.

3. Cash Flow Margin Set to Decline
If you’ve followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills.
Over the next year, analysts predict Strategic Education’s cash conversion will fall. Their consensus estimates imply its free cash flow margin of 13.7% for the last 12 months will decrease to 12.3%.
Final Judgment
Strategic Education doesn’t pass our quality test. With its shares underperforming the market lately, the stock trades at 10.3× forward P/E (or $78.82 per share). This valuation multiple is fair, but we don’t have much confidence in the company. There are better stocks to buy right now. We’d recommend looking at the Amazon and PayPal of Latin America.
Stocks We Like More Than Strategic Education
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