Up and up and up she goes . From 2,300 to 4,450 in less than two years is up exactly 50% and, according to our 5% Rule™, that means we're almost certain to see a 20% (of the run) correction in the near future, which would be 225 points, which would be back to 4,225. BUT first, we might get a 225-point overshoot – and that's what makes things exciting! There is no metric that seems to worry traders these days. The Shiller (or CAPE) P/E Ratio, which shows inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years (read " Irrational Exuberance " for more details) is just off the all-time high of 45 at 38.75 and, while you may think that's nowhere near 45, that was in late 1999 – when the markets were truly insane. The previous record before that was 30 – on Black Tuesday – just before the entire global economy collapsed in 1929. So why WON'T we collapse? Mainly because this market is being artificially supported by the Government through Stimulus and Bailouts and the Federal Reserve through Bond Purchases, Low Rates and Bailouts. Because the Fed has set rates artificially low and inflation is high, savers are penalized for butting their money into the banks or bonds (which the Fed are buying) and we just had a massive housing collapse 13 years ago so people are still nervous there and, since that collapse, the S&P has pretty much gone straight up from 666 to 4,456 this morning – that's 569% in 13 years! That means the only limitation to the market rally is the Fed and the Governments limits on spending. The Fed effectively has none while the Government has a " Debt Ceiling " – which is pretty much a joke but still manages to be a " crisis " every year or so. IN PROGRESS
Up and up and up she goes.
From 2,300 to 4,450 in less than two years is up exactly 50% and, according to our 5% Rule™, that means we're almost certain to see a 20% (of the run) correction in the near future, which would be 225 points, which would be back to 4,225. BUT first, we might get a 225-point overshoot – and that's what makes things exciting!
There is no metric that seems to worry traders these days. The Shiller (or CAPE) P/E Ratio, which shows inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years (read "Irrational Exuberance
" for more details) is just off the all-time high of 45 at 38.75 and, while you may think that's nowhere near 45, that was in late 1999 – when the markets were truly insane. The previous record before that was 30 – on Black Tuesday – just before the entire global economy collapsed in 1929.
So why WON'T we collapse? Mainly because this market is being artificially supported by the Government through Stimulus and Bailouts and the Federal Reserve through Bond Purchases, Low Rates and Bailouts. Because the Fed has set rates artificially low and inflation is high, savers are penalized for butting their money into the banks or bonds (which the Fed are buying) and we just had a massive housing collapse 13 years ago so people are still nervous there and, since that collapse, the S&P has pretty much gone straight up from 666 to 4,456 this morning – that's 569% in 13 years!
That means the only limitation to the market rally is the Fed and the Governments limits on spending. The Fed effectively has none while the Government has a "Debt Ceiling" – which is pretty much a joke but still manages to be a "crisis" every year or so.
IN PROGRESS
