The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Sell equities*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral*
- Trading model: Bearish*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on Twitter at @humblestudent and on Mastodon at @humblestudent@toot.community. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real-time here.
Positive or negative divergence?Several readers pointed out to me that while the short-term breadth indicators like the percentage of S&P 500 above their 20 and 50 dma are exhibiting negative divergences, the longer-term percentage of S&P 500 above their 200 dma has been far more resilient. In fact, the strength of the percentage above 200 dma is a signal of underlying strength.
Is the market showing positive or negative divergences?
The full post can be found here.
