Very few expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates Wednesday. Instead, investors will parse Chairman Jerome Powell’s Fed speak to determine if they’ve got expectations right for the first rate cut, or, if years of stubborn inflation will push potential cuts out even further.
"Our current expectation is for three rate cuts before year-end, with the first rate cut at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 12, 2024," Brian Reiling, head of fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute wrote in a note to clients. "Inflation data would need to meaningful disappoint to change the timing of the Fed’s first rate cut" he added.
Reiling, like other market participants tracked by the CME’s FedWatch Tool, had expected as many as six rate cuts at the start of the year, bringing the Federal funds rate to 4.6% by year's end. This projection is expected to be updated Wednesday.
FED SEES MORE RATE CUTS IN 2024
Inflation has not subsided as quickly as policymakers had expected. In February, consumer prices on an annual basis rose 3.2% above economists' projections, with prices for items like rent, beef and juice even higher at 5.8%, 9.2% and 27%, respectively. A separate report on producer prices rose 1.6% annually, also more than expected last month.
While consumer inflation is down from its peak of 9.1%, it remains above the Fed's 2% mandate.
In a FOX Business exclusive last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen regretted prior comments characterizing inflation as being "transitory" and while she noted prices are easing the decline may not be "smooth."
YELLEN: INFLATION DECLINE MAY NOT BE SMOOTH
"The Fed's between a rock and a hard place. They gotta buy some time here so they can see more about the economy, about the inflation statistics before they have to decide to cut rates" Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CEO, said during an appearance on "The Claman Countdown."
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The FOMC will announce the latest decision on interest rates at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, following by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
