KBRA releases its quarterly report highlighting our Chief Markets Strategist Van Hesser’s view on key economic indicators, as well as what he identifies as the most influential factors driving credit markets in the upcoming quarter. The report also examines credit market valuations in the context of current and future market conditions.

Key factors driving credit market conditions in Q4 include resilient U.S. economic growth and strong, if not extraordinary, corporate earnings growth, which foster relatively constructive financial conditions and manageable commercial and consumer defaults. However, uncertainty is creeping in once again on inflation, geopolitics (and the impact on oil and other commodities), and the opportunity and disruption that are part of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout.

Looking ahead, we are paying close attention to several factors that could materially impact credit markets. First, the path of interest rates, and the costs that inflation and elevated borrowing needs have on interest-sensitive sectors of the economy. Second, the degree to which the promise of AI is upheld as greater visibility into the financing needs, constraints, monetization, and returns emerge. Third, the resilience of consumer spending, which is facing mounting headwinds in the form of slowing wage growth, persistent above-target inflation, and job market uncertainty. And fourth, the sustainability and breadth of corporate earnings growth, which remains exceptionally strong, supported by AI-related investment and the wealth effects that come with it.

Click here to view the report.

Related Publications

• Van Hesser’s 3 Things in Credit: A KBRA Podcast
• Gordon Kerr’s Credit Compass: Navigating European Credit Markets

About KBRA

KBRA, one of the major credit rating agencies, is registered in the U.S., EU, and the UK. KBRA is recognized as a Qualified Rating Agency in Taiwan, and is also a Designated Rating Organization for structured finance ratings in Canada. As a full-service credit rating agency, investors can use KBRA ratings for regulatory capital purposes in multiple jurisdictions.

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