FN Media Group Presents Oilprice.com Market Commentary
New York, NY – April 30, 2026 – Failed peace talks and the ongoing disruption at the Strait of Hormuz reminded the world what a chokepoint looks like. Oil spiked. Then, just as quickly, the tension eased again. This kind of week forces a question: what other chokepoints are hiding in plain sight? There’s one that could make Hormuz look manageable in one sense. Companies mentioned in today’s commentary includes: Realloys Inc. (ALOY), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC), General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD).
Oil has dozens of global suppliers. When one source gets disrupted, others fill the gap. Prices spike, then stabilize. The system bends but doesn’t break. Domestic rare earth alloys are different. There is no backup supplier. There is no strategic reserve. And the concentration of control isn’t 30% or 50% — it’s north of 90%, all sitting inside China.
If rare earth alloys disappeared tomorrow, the F-35 production line at Lockheed Martin goes silent. Not slowed. Silent. EVs stop rolling off the line. Missile guidance systems, radar arrays, wind turbines — all of it depends on permanent magnets made from rare earth metals that almost no one outside China can produce.
One of the very few companies that has moved early to tackle this crisis is REalloys (ALOY). Instead of chasing upstream mining, the focus is to bring the entire supply chain back home: metallization, alloying, and ultimately magnet production. This is exactly what the Pentagon’s largest contractors are looking for in 2026. The data makes clear why China has a stranglehold on strategic rare earth materials, and why regaining control is so important for the Pentagon:
The base metal of every permanent magnet on the planet has tripled off its lows
Neodymium peaked above $200/kg in 2022, then fell into the $60–70/kg range by mid-2024 as Chinese supply surged and inventories built. That reset is reversing. Prices have moved back into the $130–150/kg range in China, with quoted metal prices outside China already around $220/kg.
This isn’t a liquid, transparent commodity market. It’s a tight, opaque supply chain where a small number of producers set the tone. When demand returns and inventories tighten, prices don’t drift—they move. NdPr sits at the center of it. It accounts for most of the rare earth content in high-performance permanent magnets. When it moves, the rest of the magnet supply chain generally follows.
Dysprosium prices have reversed
This is the figure that should concern defense planners. Dysprosium surged above $500/kg in 2023, then collapsed through 2024 as Chinese supply flooded the market and inventories built. That reset is over, with China prices hitting the ~$240–250/kg range in March.
Dy is one of two heavy rare earth elements (along with terbium) that gets added to NdFeB magnets to allow them to function in extreme heat and high-stress environments — the exact conditions inside a jet engine, missile system, or high-performance EV traction motor. Without dysprosium, those magnets demagnetize. The system fails. There is no substitute. And here’s the kicker: there is currently no commercial-scale heavy rare earth production in North America. The only commercial metallization of heavy rare earths exists within China.
Terbium: rarer, more expensive, and even more tightly controlled
Terbium tells the same story as dysprosium, only louder. It’s rarer, more expensive, and even more tightly controlled. Prices surged to nearly $3,000/kg in 2023 as demand collided with a supply chain that has almost no elasticity, then reset to around $1,000/kg as inventories rebuilt. That reset seems to be complete. Terbium is now holding in the $1,000–$1,100/kg range, at a multiple of every other rare earth used in high-performance magnets.
Supply remains concentrated, production is limited, and this market has very little depth. When demand tightens, prices move quickly.
What these figures aren’t telling you…
These numbers are only telling us part of the story. They show China domestic prices for rare earth metals. Outside of China, everyone’s paying a massive premium. Europe and the U.S. are sometimes paying 2.5–3X what these figures show.
Outside China, material shows up further down the chain, as metal, as alloy, in a form that can actually be used. That’s where transactions happen. mAnd the price is higher.
This means Neodymium moves closer to the $210–$220 range, while Terbium and Dysprosium shoot through the roof, towards $900/kg for Dysprosium and over $4,000/kg for Terbium, depending on its form. mIt means REalloys (ALOY) is not building into China prices. mIt’s building into the premium outside China.
That changes the economics completely. If China domestic dysprosium is around $240/kg but ex-China material is clearing closer to $800–$900/kg, and terbium moves from roughly $1,000/kg inside China to well above $3,600–$4,000/kg outside it, the value is no longer in just producing material. The value is in producing deliverable non-China material into a market that already has a supply shortage and pricing premium.
247 Days Left
All of this lands against a hard deadline.On January 1, 2027, new U.S. defense procurement rules under DFARS and 10 U.S.C. §4872 take effect. After that date, Chinese-origin rare earth materials cannot be used in American defense systems. Every major defense contractor — Lockheed, RTX, Northrop Grumman — must have a domestic, China-free rare earth alloy supply chain by that date. That supply chain barely exists.
China didn’t just dominate the rare earth alloy market. They mostly eliminated the competition. The West stopped producing rare earth alloys decades ago. The expertise left. The equipment left. The workforce left. One company has initiated the comeback and is already producing heavy rare earth metals and alloys in North America.
REalloys (ALOY)
REalloys operates a facility in Euclid, Ohio with 30 years of metallurgy expertise, active Pentagon contracts, and a proven capability in the Western Hemisphere to metallize rare earths.
The company completed a reverse merger and now trades on NASDAQ. Its processes include the most critical step in the entire rare earth supply chain: the point where processed oxides become the metals that go into permanent magnets. And it’s scaling.
REalloys has partnered with the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC), which is building North America’s first fully integrated, commercial rare earth processing facility — backed by over $216 million CAD in government and internal funding. SRC produces the rare earth oxides.
Those oxides move south to Ohio, where REalloys converts them into finished metals and alloys. Mine to metal. Canada to the United States. A fully allied supply chain built specifically to comply with the Pentagon’s 2027 deadline.
REalloys has locked up 80% of SRC’s output under an exclusive offtake — and the economics are staggering. Phase 1 begins early 2027: roughly 525 tonnes per year of NdPr metal, 30 tonnes of dysprosium oxide, and 10 tonnes of terbium oxide. At those levels, the SRC–REalloys system would be one of the few and largest emerging sources of separated heavy rare earth oxides outside China.
Phase 2 is expected to scale dramatically — 3,500 tonnes of NdPr metal, 200 tonnes of dysprosium metal, 45 tonnes of terbium metal, and 20,000 tonnes of finished magnets annually. At full scale, that positions REalloys and SRC among the largest non-Chinese producers of heavy rare earth metals, at a scale few projects outside China are targeting.
The math is clear. Neodymium is around $215/kg, up 45% this year. Praseodymium sits near $210/kg, up 45%. Dysprosium has climbed to roughly $931/kg, up more than 100%. Terbium metal in China is ~$1,000/kg. But those numbers still miss the most important part of this market. They reflect China pricing.
Outside that system, the same metals clear at a premium. Neodymium moves higher. Praseodymium moves higher. Dysprosium steps into the $1,200–$1,500/kg range. Terbium — on an ex-China basis — moves through $4,000/kg and above, depending on availability and delivery. The spread is the market.
It is the premium Western buyers are already paying. And it’s the profit pool sitting outside China, specifically in Euclid, Ohio, where REalloys is getting positioned to capture that spread at scale. The project is financed. EXIM has provided REalloys with a Letter of Intent for $200 million to support the buildout.
Defense companies to keep an eye on as the deadline approaches:
Lockheed Martin (LMT) remains the backbone of the U.S. defense industrial base, anchored by its leadership in advanced combat aircraft, missile systems, and integrated air and missile defense. The company’s F-35 Lightning II program continues to serve as the single largest weapons system program in the world, supplying not only the U.S. military but also a growing list of allied nations. That multinational footprint provides long-duration backlog visibility and recurring sustainment revenue that extends decades beyond initial production.
With sustained demand for missile interceptors, combat aircraft upgrades, and space-based defense systems, Lockheed’s outlook remains tied less to cyclical dynamics and more to structural defense modernization.
RTX Corporation (RTX), formed from the merger of Raytheon and United Technologies, has evolved into one of the most diversified defense and aerospace platforms globally. Its portfolio spans missile defense systems, advanced radars, aircraft engines, avionics, and cybersecurity solutions, giving it exposure across air, land, sea, and space domains.
Raytheon’s Patriot missile system remains one of the most widely deployed air defense platforms worldwide and has seen renewed demand amid heightened missile threats. RTX has also benefited from increased orders for interceptors and replenishment contracts, particularly as governments seek to strengthen layered defense systems.
With rising geopolitical risk premiums and a structural shift toward integrated air and missile defense, RTX’s diversified exposure provides both resilience and growth optionality within the defense sector.
While Boeing (BA) is widely known for commercial aviation, its defense, space, and security division remains a cornerstone of U.S. military procurement. The company manufactures the P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, the KC-46 aerial refueling tanker, Apache helicopters, and various satellite and space systems critical to U.S. defense infrastructure.
As geopolitical tensions elevate demand for surveillance, refueling capacity, and integrated aerospace systems, Boeing’s defense division provides an important stabilizing component to the broader company profile.
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) occupies a critical role in high-end aerospace and strategic systems. The company is the prime contractor for the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, one of the most strategically significant modernization programs in the U.S. Air Force’s history. That program alone provides decades of potential production and sustainment revenue.
Recent defense budget discussions have reinforced funding for strategic deterrence and space modernization, areas directly aligned with Northrop’s strengths. The company has also secured work related to interceptor systems and classified programs, though details remain limited due to national security constraints.
General Dynamics Corporation (GD) combines shipbuilding, combat vehicles, aerospace, and IT systems under one diversified umbrella. The company’s Electric Boat division produces Virginia-class submarines and Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines — programs that anchor U.S. naval deterrence.
Recent submarine contracts extend production visibility well into the next decade, while geopolitical tensions continue to emphasize naval force projection and undersea capability. GD’s land systems division, including Abrams tanks and armored vehicles, also benefits from modernization cycles and replenishment orders.
By. Michael Kern
Oilprice Intelligence brings you the inside view on where the next gains will come from, breaking down the market’s biggest growth driver with analysis from veteran oilmen and experts. Click here to get this crucial intel for free
IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
This publication contains forward-looking statements, including statements regarding expected continual growth of the featured companies and/or industry. The Publisher notes that statements contained herein that look forward in time, which include everything other than historical information, involve risks and uncertainties that may affect the companies’ actual results of operations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ include, but are not limited to, changing governmental laws and policies concerning, among other things, recreational and medical cannabis sales, success of the company’s proprietary technology, the size and growth of the market for the company’s products and services, the company’s ability to fund its capital requirements in the near term and long term, pricing pressures, etc.
SHARE OWNERSHIP
Neither the author nor the publisher, Oilprice.com, was paid to publish this communication concerning REalloys (ALOY). However, the owner of Oilprice.com owns shares and/or stock options of the featured company and therefore has an incentive to see the featured company’s stock perform well. The owner of Oilprice.com may buy or sell shares of the featured company at any time including at or near the time you receive this communication. This share ownership should be viewed as a major conflict with our ability to be unbiased. This is why we stress that you conduct extensive due diligence as well as seek the advice of your financial advisor or a registered broker-dealer before investing in any securities.
This communication is not, and should not be construed to be, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Neither this communication nor the Publisher purport to provide a complete analysis of any company or its financial position. The Publisher is not, and does not purport to be, a broker-dealer or registered investment adviser. This communication is not, and should not be construed to be, personalized investment advice directed to or appropriate for any particular investor. Any investment should be made only after consulting a professional investment advisor and only after reviewing the financial statements and other pertinent corporate information about the company. Further, readers are advised to read and carefully consider the Risk Factors identified and discussed in the advertised company’s SEC, SEDAR and/or other government filings. Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This communication is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The information on which it is based is believed to be reliable. Nevertheless, the Publisher cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information.
INDEMNIFICATION/RELEASE OF LIABILITY
By reading this communication, you acknowledge that you have read and understand this disclaimer, and further that to the greatest extent permitted under law, you release the Publisher, its affiliates, assigns and successors from any and all liability, damages, and injury from this communication. You further warrant that you are solely responsible for any financial outcome that may come from your investment decisions.
TERMS OF USE
By reading this communication you agree that you have reviewed and fully agree to the Terms of Use found here http://oilprice.com/terms-and-conditions If you do not agree to the Terms of Use http://oilprice.com/terms-and-conditions, please contact Oilprice.com to discontinue receiving future communications.
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
Oilprice.com is the Publisher’s trademark. All other trademarks used in this communication are the property of their respective trademark holders. The Publisher is not affiliated, connected, or associated with, and is not sponsored, approved, or originated by, the trademark holders unless otherwise stated. No claim is made by the Publisher to any rights in any third-party trademarks.
This press release was distributed on behalf of REalloys (ALOY)
DISCLAIMER: OilPrice.com is Source of all content listed above. FN Media Group, LLC (FNM), is a third party publisher and news dissemination service provider, which disseminates electronic information through multiple online media channels. FNM is NOT affiliated in any manner with OilPrice.com or any company mentioned herein. The commentary, views and opinions expressed in this release by OilPrice.com are solely those of OilPrice.com and are not shared by and do not reflect in any manner the views or opinions of FNM. FNM is not liable for any investment decisions by its readers or subscribers. FNM and its affiliated companies are a news dissemination and financial marketing solutions provider and are NOT a registered broker/dealer/analyst/adviser, holds no investment licenses and may NOT sell, offer to sell or offer to buy any security. FNM was not compensated by any public company mentioned herein to disseminate this press release but was compensated twenty four hundred dollars by REalloys to distribute this release on behalf of the company. #tickertagpressreleases #pressrelease #stockalerts
FNM HOLDS NO SHARES OF ANY COMPANY NAMED IN THIS RELEASE.
This release contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended and such forward-looking statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. “Forward-looking statements” describe future expectations, plans, results, or strategies and are generally preceded by words such as “may”, “future”, “plan” or “planned”, “will” or “should”, “expected,” “anticipates”, “draft”, “eventually” or “projected”. You are cautioned that such statements are subject to a multitude of risks and uncertainties that could cause future circumstances, events, or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements, including the risks that actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, and other risks identified in a company’s annual report on Form 10-K or 10-KSB and other filings made by such company with the Securities and Exchange Commission. You should consider these factors in evaluating the forward-looking statements included herein, and not place undue reliance on such statements. The forward-looking statements in this release are made as of the date hereof and FNM undertakes no obligation to update such statements.
Contact Information:
Media Contact e-mail: editor@financialnewsmedia.com
U.S. Phone: +1(561)486-1799
OilPrice.com
+44 203 239 4080
SOURCE: Oilprice.com
The post 3 Rare Earth Metals Keeping Pentagon Planners Up At Night appeared first on Financial News Media.
