TXG Q4 Deep Dive: Consumables Growth, Spatial Expansion, and AI-Driven Demand Shape Outlook

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Biotech company 10x Genomics (NASDAQ: TXG) reported Q4 CY2025 results exceeding the market’s revenue expectations, but sales were flat year on year at $166 million. The company expects the full year’s revenue to be around $612.5 million, close to analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.07 per share was significantly above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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10x Genomics (TXG) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:

  • Revenue: $166 million vs analyst estimates of $159.2 million (flat year on year, 4.3% beat)
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.07 vs analyst estimates of -$0.04 (significant beat)
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $16.12 million (9.7% margin, 289% year-on-year growth)
  • Operating Margin: -11.8%, up from -30.2% in the same quarter last year
  • Market Capitalization: $2.22 billion

StockStory’s Take

10x Genomics’ fourth quarter results saw stable revenue performance despite a subdued research funding environment, with management crediting continued consumables growth and increased adoption of new products as key drivers. CEO Serge Saxonov pointed to strong momentum in single cell consumables, especially from the newly launched FLEX APEX assay, and double-digit consumables growth in the spatial segment. Management noted that late-quarter budget releases, particularly in EMEA, contributed to the quarter’s outcome. CFO Adam Taich highlighted disciplined cost control, which reduced operating expenses and supported a significant improvement in operating margin compared to last year.

Looking forward, 10x Genomics’ outlook is shaped by ongoing expansion in AI-driven biological research, growth in translational and clinical applications, and a continued focus on consumables adoption. Management expects FLEX APEX and the Xenium platform to drive increasing reaction volumes, while capital equipment demand remains constrained. Saxonov stated, “We are at the nexus of some of the most important trends our industry has ever seen,” emphasizing the company’s position in enabling large-scale data generation for AI. The company’s hybrid strategy for clinical diagnostics and collaborations with leading institutions are central to its growth plans.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management attributed the quarter’s performance to robust consumables demand, expanded product capabilities, and effective cost management, while highlighting ongoing pressures in capital equipment sales and regional funding dynamics.

  • Consumables volume growth: Single cell consumables saw double-digit volume increases, primarily driven by adoption of lower-cost FLEX and on-chip multiplexing products, which expanded access and supported higher reaction counts.

  • Spatial segment momentum: The spatial business, led by the Xenium platform, delivered double-digit consumables revenue growth, with strong customer expansion and increased utilization among existing users. Visium HD 3’ and HD cell segmentation were also launched to enhance transcriptome and tissue analysis capabilities.

  • New product launches: The FLEX APEX assay, introduced in the quarter, quickly became the most popular single cell assay by volume due to its flexible input requirements and lower cost per experiment. In spatial, multimodal analysis combining RNA and protein detection was introduced, broadening the platform’s utility.

  • Regional performance variability: While the Americas experienced a 6% revenue decline amid ongoing U.S. funding uncertainty, EMEA and APAC regions saw better-than-expected growth, benefiting from late-year budget flushes and year-end spending.

  • Cost discipline and margin improvement: Operating expenses were cut by 18% year over year, largely from reduced legal and personnel costs, supporting a substantial improvement in operating margin. The company ended the year with a $130 million increase in cash, reflecting strengthened financial discipline.

Drivers of Future Performance

10x Genomics’ guidance for the next year is underpinned by sustained consumables growth, new applications in translational research, and an expanding role in AI-powered projects, but faces ongoing capital equipment and funding headwinds.

  • AI-driven research demand: Management anticipates continued expansion of large-scale AI and virtual cell projects, with FLEX APEX and spatial platforms positioned to meet growing requirements for biological data generation. Partnerships with organizations like the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative and Arc Institute validate this trend.

  • Translational and clinical applications: The company is investing in clinical collaborations and building a CLIA lab to facilitate diagnostic use of single cell and spatial technologies, aiming to capture opportunities in oncology and autoimmune disease monitoring. These initiatives are expected to drive biopharma adoption and support a shift toward translational revenue.

  • Persistent capital equipment constraints: Funding for capital equipment is expected to remain limited, putting pressure on instrument revenue. Management’s outlook assumes customers will continue to prioritize consumables and operational efficiency over new equipment purchases, with regional funding variability likely to persist.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Looking ahead, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) adoption rates and utilization trends for FLEX APEX and Xenium as indicators of consumables-driven growth, (2) the pace and impact of clinical collaborations and CLIA lab development on translational revenue, and (3) regional funding dynamics, especially in the U.S. and EMEA, for signs of a changing capital equipment environment. Continued innovation and customer uptake of new applications will also be critical milestones.

10x Genomics currently trades at $17.80, up from $17.51 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).

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